This year’s heavy snowfall on the prairies has many wondering aloud if the conditions are ripe for a second year in a row of flooding.
Last June, Alberta came face to face with what might be Canada’s most expansive natural disaster. While Drumheller’s mitigation efforts helped save Drumheller from substantial damages, many are wondering if there is the same risk this season. After all, the one in 100 year flood level has now been breached twice in eight years.
According to Carrie Sancartier of Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development, it is too early to make such a prediction.
“In terms of predicting flooding this spring it is still too early in the year,” said Sancartier. "Typically in the plains area we start to think about melts around April.”
She explains there are a number of factors that come in to predicting potential flooding, including the weather.
“How quickly spring melts happen depends on the weather. If it gets really hot really quickly and stays above freezing overnight, it would melt faster than if it were warm during the day and freezing during the night,” said Sancartier.
Another indicator is snow pack in the mountains and she says this is localized and may not give an overall complete view of the risk.
“It depends where you look in the province,” she said.
Alberta Environment’s web presence has posted ongoing levels of river flow and snow pack.
For example, a snapshot of the snowpack in the mountains at Skoki Lodge, upstream from the Red Deer River shows the snow pack as lower than last season, although still in the average level. Slightly north, Limestone Ridge snow data shows higher than normal levels of accumulation.
“With the higher snowpack, theoretically there is an increased risk, there is still a lot of winter to happen yet,” said Sancartier, adding there will be more monitoring as it gets later in the season.
“There isn’t a lot of snow data and it is mostly in the mountains at this point. In some areas of the province, the plains for example, we wouldn’t start monitoring until the beginning of March,” said Sancartier.
She said the province continues to monitor as spring approaches.
“If there is cause for concern we would issue an advisory to let municipalities and Albertans know there is a concern and we try to do that with as much advance warning as possible,” said Sancartier.